intermediate
8 min readStrategies
Information edge and profitable approaches.
BonusBell Team
Prediction markets offer unique opportunities because they trade on real-world outcomes— not just price movements. Your information edge comes from understanding events better than the market consensus.
The Information Edge
Unlike financial markets dominated by professionals, prediction markets can be inefficient:
- Many participants are casual bettors, not analysts
- Niche topics get less attention = more mispricing
- Domain experts often don't participate in markets
- Emotional reactions to news create overreactions
Good to Know
Your edge isn't hidden information—it's better analysis.Public information that others ignore or misinterpret creates value.
Core Strategies
1. Domain Expertise
Your professional or hobby knowledge can be an edge:
- Work in an industry? You understand dynamics others miss
- Follow a niche topic obsessively? You'll catch news faster
- Understand technical subjects? Apply rigorous analysis
Strategy Insight
The best opportunities are where you know more than 95% of market participants. Don't trade elections if political science PhDs are your competition.
2. Fade the Crowd
Markets overreact to news, especially bad news:
Overreaction Example
Candidate drops in one poll → Price drops 15 cents=If one poll doesn't change fundamentals, this is overpriced fear
Buy when panic is maximum; sell when euphoria peaks.
3. Base Rate Analysis
Use historical frequencies to calibrate probabilities:
- How often does X happen historically?
- Is this situation truly different?
- What would need to change for the base rate to not apply?
Base Rate Examples
| Question | Market Says | History Says | Edge? |
|---|---|---|---|
| "Will Fed cut rates?" | 45% | Rarely cuts without crisis | Possibly short |
| "Incumbent reelection" | 55% | Incumbents win ~65% historically | Buy if conditions normal |
| "Bitcoin > $100K by X" | 25% | Rarely hits aggressive targets on time | Possibly short |
4. Scenario Analysis
Map out possible futures and assign probabilities:
- List all realistic outcomes
- Assign your probability to each
- Compare to market prices
- Trade the biggest discrepancies
Risk Management
Position Sizing
Don't oversize even on high-conviction trades:
- Never bet more than 5-10% of bankroll on single outcome
- Account for the possibility you're wrong
- Diversify across uncorrelated events
Warning
Correlation kills. If you bet on the economy doing well in 5 different markets, you've made one big bet, not five diversified ones.
Exit Strategies
- Take profits – Don't get greedy; lock in gains
- Cut losses – If thesis is proven wrong, exit
- Re-evaluate at milestones – Did anything change?
Market-Specific Tactics
Political Markets
- Polls lag reality; watch for turnout indicators
- Markets often over-weight last poll
- State-level aggregation beats national polls
Crypto/Tech Markets
- Understand on-chain data and developer activity
- Regulatory announcements move markets fast
- Token incentives can distort prediction markets
Economic Data Markets
- Wall Street analysts have models—you need to be better
- High-frequency indicators can preview monthly reports
- Calendar spreads can be profitable (this month vs. next)
Avoiding Common Mistakes
Prediction Market Pitfalls
| Mistake | Why It Hurts | How to Fix |
|---|---|---|
| Overconfidence | You're not as certain as you think | Assign humility premium |
| Ignoring liquidity | Can't exit at fair price | Check volume before buying |
| Chasing moves | Buying after price already adjusted | Be early or stay out |
| Narrative trading | Great story ≠ correct price | Quantify your edge |
| Overleveraging | One bad outcome wipes you out | Size positions conservatively |
Strategy Insight
Keep a trading journal. Review your predictions after resolution. Were you right for the right reasons? Luck vs. skill analysis is crucial.
Key Takeaways
- 1Your edge comes from understanding events better than the crowd
- 2Fade overreactions—markets panic on news, then normalize
- 3Use base rates to calibrate your probability estimates
- 4Diversify across uncorrelated events, not correlated ones
- 5Keep a journal and honestly assess luck vs. skill